Fire the Idea that the Braves and Red Sox Choked

When two teams blow huge leads in September and end up missing the playoffs, the first thing that comes to mind for most people is "they choked." The problem with that conclusion is it's lazy and ignores facts, especially in the case of the Braves and Red Sox. Here's why those teams definitely did collapse but didn't really choke in September.

Sure their collapse was epic, but was it a choke?

Braves: Atlanta led by 8.5 games over St. Louis in the wild card standings on September 5, then proceeded to lose 13 of their final 18 games, including their last five. That is an epic collapse, but too few people are asking why it happened. There are three reasons, and they're all related: weak offense, injured starting pitchers and an overworked bullpen. The weak offense was a season-long problem that the Braves covered up with great pitching for five months. The Braves finished the season with a .243 team batting average (13th in the NL) and .308 on-base percentage (14th in the NL). They also finished 15th in the NL in doubles, 16th in the NL in triples and 14th in the NL in stolen bases. As a team, they averaged 3.96 runs per game, which put heavy strain on a pitching staff with an ERA of 3.49 (4th in the NL).

Atlanta's pitching was good enough to keep the wins rolling in for five months, until Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens got hurt and missed the entire month of September. No team has enough depth to keep winning without two of its four best starters, and Atlanta's weak offense couldn't support substitute pitchers like Mike Minor (4.14 ERA).

When Hanson and Jurrjens went down, it put added strain on a bullpen that had been spectacular, but was at the point of being overworked even as September approached. Closer Craig Kimbrel appeared in 79 games in 2011, setup man Jonny Venters pitched in 85 games and 7th inning specialist Eric O'Flaherty made 78 appearances. By comparison, Yankees closer Mariano Rivera made just 64 appearances in 2011. The Braves 'pen was tired, and part of the blame for that lies with manager Freddy Gonzalez. He is an extremely conservative manager, who uses his players as the situation calls for on paper. That means he often doesn't take into account that a guy might be tired. His approach helped cost the Braves a playoff spot.    

Red Sox: Boston had similar problems to Atlanta, suffering from injuries to key players at the worst time. The Red Sox had a powerful offense in 2011, but Kevin Youkilis missed most of September with several injuries and finished the season on the 60-day DL. The pitching staff had injuries, too. Josh Beckett sprained his ankle on September 5 and didn't pitch again for 11 days. Erik Bedard had a sore knee and didn't pitch between September 4 and September 20. John Lackey bruised his calf on September 9, but didn't miss any starts. Just like the Braves, the Red Sox simply couldn't compensate for all their injuries.

You can call the HR Department a Braves/Red Sox apologist if you want, but how many people really took the time to examine why the two teams fell apart? It wasn't just abstract things like nerves or cockiness; instead, there are specific reasons why Boston and Atlanta are sitting at home tonight. If more people had looked beyond the sheer shock of the collapses, they would have seen that. Hopefully now you do.