Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Fire the Dodgers' Playoff Hopes

Loney: cock-eyed optimist (Getty).
The Los Angeles Dodgers' recent, um, two-game losing streak apparently has the team looking to October.

"This is one of the best teams I've ever been on, as far as personalities, the work that we put in and being confident," 1B James Loney said. "I don't see any doubt in anybody here." That optimism seems to have infected manager Don Mattingly, too. "Realistically, we've got to go out now and win four out of five all the time. If we can do that over a period of time and creep a little bit, you never know."

The Dodgers are particularly optimistic because they are the only NL team to have a winning record against the presumptive favorite Phillies over the past five seasons (19-18). That's fine and well, but here's why the Dodgers won't make the playoffs:

  • The Dodgers are 10 games behind the first-place Giants as of August 9 with the Rockies and Diamondbacks also in front of them. So far this season the Dodgers are 5-7 against the D'backs (including 2-4 in July), 4-5 against the Giants and 6-6 against the Rockies.  

  • Only three teams have blown an August double-digit lead since 1900. 

  • The team's longest winning streak this season is five games and it has had three losing streaks of five games.

  • Forget the Wild Card. The Dodgers are 14 back in that race, with nine teams in front of them. It ain't happening.

It would be a great story if the Dodgers made the playoffs, and you can't blame the team for being positive, but this is just totally unrealistic.

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