Fire MLB's First-Half Surprise Teams

This play may have sunk the Pirates' ship.

It seems the heat is wilting more than grass this summer as the Pirates, Indians and Royals have all fallen (or are falling) out of contention after spending at least some portion of the season in first place.

First to fall was Kansas City. The Royals carry low expectations every year, so when they started off 10-4 people got pretty excited (it doesn't take much to get a Royals fan excited, but still). Within one month, though, the Royals were a .500 team and 4.5 games out of first.

Reason for their rise: they were just hot. OF Jeff Francoeur, a career .268 hitter, came out of the gate at .333 (on April 20) and had hit 9 home runs by the end of May. Team ace Jeff Francis had an ERA of 3.00 through four starts. 

Reason for their fall: they're not actually a good team. Francoeur is down to .273 and has 6 home runs since the end of May. Francis is now 4-12 with a 4.51 ERA, which is the best on a truly awful pitching staff. They're 27th in team ERA, 28th in quality starts, 27th in WHIP and 28th in batting average against.

The next to fall were the Pirates. Pittsburgh even had commissioner Bud Selig hopeful that a small market, low payroll, crap roster team could succeed. After climbing into first place on July 19 for the first time since Honus Wagner's era, Pittsburgh went into a brutal tail spin within days, losing 13 of 14 games and falling out of contention.

Reason for their rise: excellent pitching. Their team ERA is .370, which is exactly what you need when your team averages 3.84 runs per game and bats .244.

Reason for their fall: a blown call that cost them an extra-inning game against the Braves on July 26 seemed to mess with their mojo and kicked off the losing streak. During the streak, the previously excellent pitching imploded and yielded 10+ runs four times, seven runs three times and six runs once.

The last to go was Cleveland. Although the Indians are only two games out of first, they had been in first from April 8 until July 7.

Reason for their rise: luck. The team BABIP (batting average on balls in play) in April was .309 (an average major leaguer has a .302 BABIP). For those who aren't dorks, BABIP is considered the best quantifier of luck in baseball.

Reason for their fall: luck: The team BABIP in June was .280.

It's nice to think that baseball has competitive balance, but the season is truly a marathon and sadly these three couldn't finish the race. That's not to say that teams besides the Rays can't make the playoffs despite low payrolls, but the 2011 season will not see a team replicate Tampa Bay's success.